The Swedish government’s recently updated emergency preparedness guide, which includes provisions for surviving wartime, might seem reminiscent of a bygone era. Bottled water, sleeping bags, extra batteries, enough cash for a week, and non-perishable food like rice and cereal were once standard advice. But in 2024, there’s a new entry in the checklist: cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns. While Russia’s name isn’t directly mentioned, its looming presence, reminiscent of the Cold War era, casts a shadow over these recommendations. The nature of the threat has evolved dramatically, and cyberwarfare is now a central component of national security concerns.
This shift in focus reflects a broader recognition among European governments that cybersecurity threats—especially from state actors like Russia and China—are no longer hypothetical. Richard Horne, the head of the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), recently warned that the severity of the cybersecurity risk posed by nations like Russia is being widely underestimated. The increase in sophisticated cyber-incidents over the past year has made it clear that cyberattacks are no longer a distant concern but a present-day crisis that could destabilize nations and infrastructures.
A New Era of Cyberwarfare
The implications of cyberattacks are profound and multi-dimensional. British government officials have openly discussed the potential consequences of cyber-operations, particularly those attributed to Russia. Pat McFadden, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, articulated the potential of cyberwar to be both destabilizing and debilitating. In a cyberattack, Russia could literally “turn the lights off” for millions, shutting down critical infrastructure and plunging entire nations into chaos.
Across Europe, nations like Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Denmark are acknowledging the threat of cyberattacks and preparing their citizens for the possibility of power outages and disruptions to essential services. Sweden’s updated guidance in its crisis pamphlet now suggests strategies to survive not only a military conflict but also cyberattacks that target utilities, including electricity grids. Similarly, Norway’s government has recommended that citizens stay vigilant about disinformation while also reinforcing the importance of checking information sources to prevent the spread of misleading narratives that could further destabilize society during a crisis.
A Growing Threat to Energy Infrastructure
Cyberattacks on energy grids have emerged as a primary concern for many security experts. The idea of a cyberattack that takes down critical infrastructure like electricity, water, and communications networks is no longer a distant possibility; it’s a clear and present danger. Dan Marks, a research fellow for energy security at the Royal United Services Institute, highlighted that while the UK’s electricity grid is designed to be resilient, there’s always the potential for damage and disruption, especially when adversaries like Russia actively target energy infrastructure.
These cyberattacks on energy grids and critical services could trigger widespread consequences, potentially causing national-scale blackouts or the paralysis of essential services. With such risks looming, it is imperative that every major organization, especially those managing critical infrastructure, establish a robust plan for responding to and mitigating the effects of a cyberattack.
The Creep of Cyber Aggression Beyond Ukraine
The shift from physical warfare to cyberwarfare has been especially noticeable since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Experts note that once it became clear that the war would be prolonged, Russia began to expand its cyberaggression beyond Ukraine, targeting NATO members and other European nations. The use of cyberattacks in this context is part of a broader effort to destabilize governments, create panic, and weaken societal confidence.
Evidence of this escalation came to light in September 2024, when Western intelligence agencies revealed that a unit of Russia’s military intelligence, Unit 29155, was responsible for a campaign of malicious cyberactivity against government entities and critical infrastructure organizations around the world. The unit’s tactics ranged from espionage and data theft to sabotage and disinformation campaigns, highlighting the multifaceted nature of modern warfare in the digital age.
The Role of Ransomware and Cybercrime
In addition to state-sponsored cyberattacks, Russia also plays a significant role as a hub for ransomware gangs. These criminal groups, which operate with relative impunity in Russia, target everything from hospitals to educational institutions and private corporations, locking their computer systems and demanding payments for data restoration. While these operations are technically independent of the Russian state, many are believed to have informal connections with the government, which tolerates their activities as long as they don’t target Russian interests directly.
This dynamic makes the threat of ransomware a key part of the wider cybersecurity landscape. In response, national security bodies are increasingly advising citizens to take basic protective measures, such as using strong, unique passwords, to safeguard personal and organizational data. This advice also extends to protecting systems from ransomware, which can cripple both private and public sector organizations alike.
Preparing for the Inevitable
As the threat landscape continues to evolve, the key takeaway for organizations and governments is resilience. Ciaran Martin, former head of the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre, emphasized the importance of having a clear, tested plan in place for responding to cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure. The gap between being “50% functional” within 24 hours and being offline for an extended period of time could be the difference between a swift recovery and a catastrophic breakdown.
In the face of cyberattacks, both nation-states and individual organizations must be proactive, not reactive. Cyber resilience, the ability to recover and continue functioning in the wake of an attack, will become the cornerstone of national security in the digital age.
The most valuable lesson from countries like Sweden and Norway is clear: psychological resilience is just as crucial as technological preparedness. In a world increasingly dominated by digital threats, the best defense against cyberwarfare is to maintain a steady hand, stay informed, and avoid the panic that such attacks aim to instigate. As the threat of cyberattacks continues to rise, the world’s nations must be ready—not only with stockpiles of food and water—but with robust cybersecurity defenses capable of withstanding the unpredictable challenges ahead.
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